Joseph Ryan Glover

Qatar’s Support Of Syria’s Rebels Is Likely A Move To Increase Qatar’s Regional Power
30 April 2012

Executive Summary:
Qatar’s overt support of Syria’s rebels in their fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government is likely an attempt to increase their regional power by helping to isolate Iran. Iran is Syria’s strongest Arab ally and if the rebels are successful in ousting Assad then Iran will suffer the loss of a key sectarian ally while Qatar reaps the benefits of taking the political initiative and allying with the dominant Saudis.

Discussion:

Qatar and Saudi Arabia, both Sunni nations, are members of the “Friends of Democratic Syria”, a group of 14 nations that proclaim that President Assad has lost his legitimacy to lead Syria.¹ The emir of Qatar has taken the harshest line with Assad and was the first to call for arming the Syrian rebels and the first to advocate for military intervention to topple Assad’s government.²

Over the last decade Qatar’s foreign policy has been to maintain good relations with all Gulf allies and to act as mediator in disputes³ and in this time Qatar earned a reputation as a shrewd political operator.⁴ Qatar saw in the Saudi’s interest in bringing down Assad an opportunity to raise their regional profile by aligning with their long-time rival and supporting Asssad’s ouster.^5,6

The Shiite Crescent. Source: Toronto Star

Removing the Assad regime would deny Iran its most important regional ally and allow the Sunni Gulf nations to break Iran’s ‘Shiite crescent’, the alliance of Shia led or Shia majority states.⁷ By forging an alliance with the stronger Saudi Arabia, Qatar contributes to and profits from the new balance of power in the Middle East.⁸

Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability is high and sources were corroborated. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is moderately complex and the deadline for the task was adequate.

Comment:
Iran and Qatar have had a strong relationship in the past; they jointly own the South Pars/North Field gas field. Because of this relationship, and Qatar’s reputation as a mediator, Qatar may have served as a back channel between the U.S. and Iran. I suspect Qatar’s hard line with Syria destroyed this back channel.

For questions or comments, please contact the author:
Email: jglove18@lakers.mercyhurst.edu
Tel. #: (416) 538-0659

Footnotes:

1. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/04/201242422832721994.html
2. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,821130,00.html
3. http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=51539
4. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,821130-2,00.html
5. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/38680/World/Region/Syria-unrest-widens-SunniShiite-divide-AFP-analysi.aspx
6. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/syria-uprising-gives-opportunity-for-sunni-saudis-to-defang-shiite-iran.html
7. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/syria-uprising-gives-opportunity-for-sunni-saudis-to-defang-shiite-iran.html
8. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,821130-2,00.html

Bahrain Hosts Warplane Drills With U.S., Arab Allies
7 April 2012

Associated Press (MANAMA, BAHRAIN) — Bahrain’s military says the U.S. and eight other countries are taking part in the Gulf nation’s largest air force exercises in more than two decades. Turkey and Pakistan will join the U.S. and U.S. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies for the aerial maneuvers. Source: http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2012/04/07/bahrain-hosts-warplane-drills-with-us-arab-allies (Reliability: High)

Analysis: The exercises will almost certainly draw criticism from Iran but it is highly unlikely Iran will respond militarily.

Comment: Brig. Gen. Sheikh Hamad Bin Abdullah Al-Khalifa of the Bahrain Royal Air Force has stated that the Sheikh Isa Airbase hosts similar military exercises every two years. Sheikh Isa Airbase is located in southern Bahrain and the U.S. has used the base in the past, including during the first Gulf War.

For questions or comments, please contact the author:
Email: jglove18@lakers.mercyhurst.edu
Tel. #: (416) 538-0659